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GTA 6 release date on Kalshi
If GTA 6 (Grand Theft Auto VI) has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Rockstar Games.
Market says (typical open contract)
100%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 99¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $0.04 | 99.1% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIll GTA6 be released by Nov 30, 2026? · Before December 2026 | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,421,646 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| WIll GTA6 be released by Dec 31, 2026? · Before 2027 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,161,679 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| WIll GTA6 be released by Jul 1, 2027? · Before July 2027 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 174,025 | Jul 02, 03:59 UTC |
| WIll GTA6 be released by Jan 1, 2028? · Before January 2028 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 141,105 | Jan 02, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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