What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 9¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.19.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 10% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 9%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

10Y how high monthly on Kalshi

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is above 5.34% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 34 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

18% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
9¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.19	9.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027? · 5.35% or above	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	2,923	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027? · 5.45% or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	1,361	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027? · 5.4% or above	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	797	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027? · 5.5% or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	703	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.24% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.25% or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	248	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.09% or above	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	189	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.32% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.33% or above	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	175	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.20% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.21% or above	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	139	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.17% or above	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	135	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.28% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.29% or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	96	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.13% or above	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	93	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.06% or above	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	52%	28	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.12% or above	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	17	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.21% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.22% or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	10	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.18% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.19% or above	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	6	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.17% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.18% or above	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	4	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.15% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.16% or above	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	3	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.11% or above	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	35%	3	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.1% or above	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	39%	3	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.08% or above	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	2	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.35% or above	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.33% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.34% or above	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.31% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.32% or above	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.30% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.31% or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.3% or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.27% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.28% or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.26% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.27% or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.25% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.26% or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.23% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.24% or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.22% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.23% or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.2% or above	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.15% or above	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	0	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.14% or above	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	0	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% by Nov 30, 2026? · 5.07% or above	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	48%	0	Nov 30, 20:30 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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