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WHO WILL HAVE A NUMBER 1 ALBUM ON THE BILLBOARD 200 on Kalshi
If Victoria Monet has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Billboard.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 102 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Charli xcx have a #1 album this year? · Charli xcx | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 92,088 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Chris Brown have a #1 album this year? · Chris Brown | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 53,984 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye have a #1 album this year? · Kanye West / Ye | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 35,201 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lil Baby have a #1 album this year? · Lil Baby | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 16,516 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Joji have a #1 album this year? · Joji | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 14,785 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Post Malone have a #1 album this year? · Post Malone | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 14,582 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Billie Eilish have a #1 album this year? · Billie Eilish | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 11,849 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Travis Scott have a #1 album this year? · Travis Scott | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 11,479 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Luke Combs have a #1 album this year? · Luke Combs | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 10,895 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Beyoncé have a #1 album this year? · Beyoncé | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 10,890 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Tyla have a #1 album this year? · Tyla | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 9,635 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Nicki Minaj have a #1 album this year? · Nicki Minaj | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 9,052 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will KAROL G have a #1 album this year? · KAROL G | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 8,521 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 album this year? · Kendrick Lamar | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 7,222 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lil Uzi Vert have a #1 album this year? · Lil Uzi Vert | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 6,942 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Young Thug have a #1 album this year? · Young Thug | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 6,868 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lil Wayne have a #1 album this year? · Lil Wayne | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 6,717 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Tate McRae have a #1 album this year? · Tate McRae | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 6,464 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BLACKPINK have a #1 album this year? · BLACKPINK | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 6,287 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will SZA have a #1 album this year? · SZA | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 6,194 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lana Del Rey have a #1 album this year? · Lana Del Rey | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 6,151 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Alex Warren have a #1 album this year? · Alex Warren | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 5,924 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Phoebe Bridgers have a #1 album this year? · Phoebe Bridgers | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 5,522 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will YoungBoy Never Broke Again have a #1 album this year? · YoungBoy Never Broke Again | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 5,445 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Justin Bieber have a #1 album this year? · Justin Bieber | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 4,419 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Megan Thee Stallion have a #1 album this year? · Megan Thee Stallion | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 3,933 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will sombr have a #1 album this year? · sombr | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 3,929 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Doechii have a #1 album this year? · Doechii | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 3,639 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Rihanna have a #1 album this year? · Rihanna | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 3,533 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Olivia Dean have a #1 album this year? · Olivia Dean | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 3,091 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Charlie Puth have a #1 album this year? · Charlie Puth | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,091 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Sabrina Carpenter have a #1 album this year? · Sabrina Carpenter | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 2,732 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Frank Ocean have a #1 album this year? · Frank Ocean | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 2,546 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ROSALÍA have a #1 album this year? · ROSALÍA | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2,189 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Dua Lipa have a #1 album this year? · Dua Lipa | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,028 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will 2 Chainz have a #1 album this year? · 2 Chainz | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,985 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Swae Lee have a #1 album this year? · Swae Lee | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,974 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Bryson Tiller have a #1 album this year? · Bryson Tiller | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,867 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Rauw Alejandro have a #1 album this year? · Rauw Alejandro | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,823 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Shaboozey have a #1 album this year? · Shaboozey | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,758 | Dec 27, 04:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 102 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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