Markets › Kalshi › Elections
2028 D running on Kalshi
If David Jolly announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, the Associated Press, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
26%
Median YES price across 45 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
52% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.59 | 27.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 191,728 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Kamala Harris | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 191,202 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Gavin Newsom | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 94,869 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Wes Moore | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 80,254 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Jon Ossoff | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 75,462 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Gretchen Whitmer | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 49,599 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Ro Khanna | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 46,042 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Hunter Biden | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 43,834 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Ruben Gallego | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 43,373 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Tim Walz | 5¢ | 5% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 40,365 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Stephen A. Smith | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 38,899 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Mark Kelly | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 36,113 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Rahm Emanuel | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 35,213 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Elissa Slotkin | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 30,209 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Raphael Warnock | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 26,702 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Cory Booker | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 25,070 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Mark Cuban | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 22,893 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · J.B. Pritzker | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 22,033 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Abigail Spanberger | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 21,363 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Josh Shapiro | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 18,900 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Jon Stewart | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 18,728 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Pete Buttigieg | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 13,782 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Michelle Obama | 7¢ | 7% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 13,445 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Chris Van Hollen | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 12,330 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Jared Polis | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 11,131 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Roy Cooper | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 9,296 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Andy Beshear | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 9,246 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Hillary Clinton | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 8,120 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · John Fetterman | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 7,424 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Chris Murphy | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 7,098 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Dean Phillips | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 6,196 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · James Talarico | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 3,885 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Phil Murphy | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 3,334 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Barack Obama | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,219 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Shawn Fain | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 2,171 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Mikie Sherrill | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 1,886 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Amy Klobuchar | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 1,829 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Mitch Landrieu | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 1,790 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Abdul El-Sayed | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 203 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? · Beto O'Rourke | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 31 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 45 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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