Markets › Kalshi › Elections
2028 R running on Kalshi
If Paul Ryan announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, the Associated Press, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 42 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
43% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.73 | 23.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · J.D. Vance | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 78,204 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Marco Rubio | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 76,732 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Tucker Carlson | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 68,295 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Donald J. Trump Jr. | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 57,181 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Ron DeSantis | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 45,302 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Marjorie Taylor Greene | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 40,601 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Ted Cruz | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 30,639 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · John McEntee | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 28,444 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Josh Hawley | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 24,710 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Donald J. Trump | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 21,351 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Thomas Massie | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 19,895 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Vivek Ramaswamy | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 17,809 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Rand Paul | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 16,990 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Nikki Haley | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 14,323 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Gregory Bovino | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 13,150 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Pete Hegseth | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 12,843 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 12,089 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Glenn Youngkin | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 11,766 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Tulsi Gabbard | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 11,167 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Steve Bannon | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 9,907 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Erika Kirk | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 7,125 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Greg Abbott | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 7,124 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 7,056 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Jeff Bezos | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 5,878 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Brian Kemp | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 5,166 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Elon Musk | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 5,003 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Chris Christie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 4,936 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Matt Gaetz | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 3,720 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Tim Scott | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 2,780 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Elise Stefanik | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 2,214 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Byron Donalds | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,669 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · John Thune | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1,251 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Jared Kushner | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 17% | 1,180 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Spencer Pratt | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 1,122 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Joe Kent | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 1,011 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Katie Britt | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 1,002 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · John Kennedy | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 916 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Larry Hogan | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 381 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Ivanka Trump | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 10 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028? · Tom Cotton | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 7 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 42 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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