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WHO WILL HAVE A TOP 20 SONG THIS YEAR? on Kalshi
If Geese has a top 20 single on the Billboard Hot 100 by the Billboard issue for Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Billboard.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 87 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
15% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye West / Ye have a top 20 song this year? · Kanye West / Ye | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 12,442 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will KATSEYE have a top 20 song this year? · KATSEYE | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 8,036 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Billie Eilish have a top 20 song this year? · Billie Eilish | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 7,164 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Young Thug have a top 20 song this year? · Young Thug | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 7,074 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charli xcx have a top 20 song this year? · Charli xcx | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 5,414 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joji have a top 20 song this year? · Joji | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 4,834 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SZA have a top 20 song this year? · SZA | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 4,408 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gracie Abrams have a top 20 song this year? · Gracie Abrams | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 4,350 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Weeknd have a top 20 song this year? · The Weeknd | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 3,925 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Travis Scott have a top 20 song this year? · Travis Scott | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 3,508 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mariah Carey have a top 20 song this year? · Mariah Carey | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,007 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Beyoncé have a top 20 song this year? · Beyoncé | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 2,698 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will EsDeeKid have a top 20 song this year? · EsDeeKid | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 2,478 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will YoungBoy Never Broke Again have a top 20 song this year? · YoungBoy Never Broke Again | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 2,447 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will BLACKPINK have a top 20 song this year? · BLACKPINK | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 2,282 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyla have a top 20 song this year? · Tyla | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 2,188 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Doechii have a top 20 song this year? · Doechii | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 2,148 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charlie Puth have a top 20 song this year? · Charlie Puth | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2,123 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Kid LAROI have a top 20 song this year? · The Kid LAROI | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 1,957 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Addison Rae have a top 20 song this year? · Addison Rae | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,927 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kendrick Lamar have a top 20 song this year? · Kendrick Lamar | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 1,821 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shaboozey have a top 20 song this year? · Shaboozey | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 1,746 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Stray Kids have a top 20 song this year? · Stray Kids | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,668 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will mgk have a top 20 song this year? · mgk | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1,549 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rihanna have a top 20 song this year? · Rihanna | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 1,495 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lady Gaga have a top 20 song this year? · Lady Gaga | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 1,438 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Mayer have a top 20 song this year? · John Mayer | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,333 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Frank Ocean have a top 20 song this year? · Frank Ocean | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 1,251 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Benson Boone have a top 20 song this year? · Benson Boone | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 1,056 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will PARTYNEXTDOOR have a top 20 song this year? · PARTYNEXTDOOR | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 1,040 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Swae Lee have a top 20 song this year? · Swae Lee | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 1,014 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyler, The Creator have a top 20 song this year? · Tyler, The Creator | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 936 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lil Nas X have a top 20 song this year? · Lil Nas X | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 905 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dua Lipa have a top 20 song this year? · Dua Lipa | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 856 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Roddy Ricch have a top 20 song this year? · Roddy Ricch | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 848 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Marías have a top 20 song this year? · The Marías | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 717 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rauw Alejandro have a top 20 song this year? · Rauw Alejandro | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 637 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Post Malone have a top 20 song this year? · Post Malone | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 636 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trippie Redd have a top 20 song this year? · Trippie Redd | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 635 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Megan Thee Stallion have a top 20 song this year? · Megan Thee Stallion | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 617 | Dec 29, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 87 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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