What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 73¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.95.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 74% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 73%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Wyoming gas price on Kalshi

If average regular gas prices for Wyoming are strictly greater than $4.1450 on Nov 10, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: AAA.

Market says (typical open contract)

73%

Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

54% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
73¢ (now)	1.4¢	$0.95	74.4%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will average gas prices be above $4.1250? · Above 4.1250	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,645	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.0950? · Above 4.0950	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,258	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.1300? · Above 4.1300	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,157	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.1000? · Above 4.1000	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,001	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.0900? · Above 4.0900	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,001	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.1050? · Above 4.1050	73¢	73%	1.4¢	—	54%	1,000	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.1350? · Above 4.1350	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	549	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.0700? · Above 4.0700	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	501	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.1150? · Above 4.1150	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	13	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.1200? · Above 4.1200	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.1450? · Above 4.1450	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.1400? · Above 4.1400	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.1100? · Above 4.1100	51¢	51%	1.7¢	—	98%	0	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.0850? · Above 4.0850	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.0800? · Above 4.0800	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.0750? · Above 4.0750	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.0650? · Above 4.0650	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.