What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 8¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.22.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 9% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 8%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

New Jersey gas price at EOY on Kalshi

If average regular gas prices for New Jersey are strictly greater than $5.0000 on Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: AAA.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

16% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
8¢ (now)	0.5¢	$3.22	8.5%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will average gas prices be above $5.0000? · Above 5.0000	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	89,834	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.8000? · Above 4.8000	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	67,392	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.9000? · Above 4.9000	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	58,341	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.0000? · Above 4.0000	10¢	10%	0.7¢	—	21%	55,132	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.9000? · Above 3.9000	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	48,221	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.1000? · Above 4.1000	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	43,920	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.8000? · Above 3.8000	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	60%	35,909	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.2000? · Above 4.2000	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	32,098	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.6000? · Above 4.6000	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	31,251	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.3000? · Above 4.3000	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	30,225	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.4000? · Above 4.4000	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	25,857	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.7000? · Above 3.7000	74¢	74%	1.3¢	—	51%	25,026	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.7000? · Above 4.7000	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	21,445	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.5000? · Above 4.5000	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	19,208	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.