What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 14¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.01.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 15% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 14%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

New Jersey gas price this week on Kalshi

If average regular gas prices for New Jersey are strictly greater than $4.2400 on Nov 16, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: AAA.

Market says (typical open contract)

14%

Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

28% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
14¢ (now)	0.8¢	$3.01	14.8%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will average gas prices be above $3.8400? · Above 3.8400	91¢	91%	0.6¢	—	18%	6	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.8600? · Above 3.8600	90¢	90%	0.6¢	—	20%	5	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.2400? · Above 4.2400	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.2200? · Above 4.2200	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.2000? · Above 4.2000	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.1800? · Above 4.1800	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.1600? · Above 4.1600	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.1400? · Above 4.1400	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.1200? · Above 4.1200	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.1000? · Above 4.1000	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.0800? · Above 4.0800	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.0600? · Above 4.0600	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.0400? · Above 4.0400	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	28%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.0200? · Above 4.0200	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $4.0000? · Above 4.0000	21¢	21%	1.2¢	—	42%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.9800? · Above 3.9800	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	56%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.9600? · Above 3.9600	38¢	38%	1.6¢	—	76%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.9400? · Above 3.9400	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	90%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.9200? · Above 3.9200	72¢	72%	1.4¢	—	56%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.9000? · Above 3.9000	83¢	83%	1.0¢	—	34%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will average gas prices be above $3.8800? · Above 3.8800	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	24%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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