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Airbnb Annual KPI on Kalshi
If Airbnb Inc. reports Above 600000000 nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 575 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026? · Above 575 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 503 | May 13, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 580 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026? · Above 580 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 335 | May 13, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 600 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026? · Above 600 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 316 | May 13, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 595 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026? · Above 595 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 302 | May 13, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 570 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026? · Above 570 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 187 | May 13, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 590 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026? · Above 590 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 150 | May 13, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 585 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026? · Above 585 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 39 | May 13, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 565 million nights & experiences booked in fiscal 2026? · Above 565 million | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | May 13, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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