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Abraham Accord Saudi Arabia on Kalshi
If Israel and Iran normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027? · Saudi Arabia | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 228,474 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan 20, 2029? · During Trump's term | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 98,661 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027? · Lebanon | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 71,169 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Israel and Syria normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027? · Syria | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 43,984 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Israel and Oman normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027? · Oman | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 18,951 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Israel and Indonesia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027? · Indonesia | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 17,910 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Israel and Djibouti normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027? · Djibouti | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 3,373 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Israel and Belize normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027? · Belize | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 2,227 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Israel and Iran normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027? · Iran | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,001 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Israel and Mauritania normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027? · Mauritania | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 663 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Israel and Maldives normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027? · Maldives | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 262 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Israel and Comoros normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027? · Comoros | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 202 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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