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AFC Champions League Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Newcastle vs Kashiwa professional AFC Champions League soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 24, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
47%
Median YES price across 42 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
94% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tie is the result · Tie | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 07:45 UTC |
| Kashiwa wins · Kashiwa | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 07:45 UTC |
| Newcastle wins · Newcastle | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 07:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 10:00 UTC |
| Daejeon Citizen wins · Daejeon Citizen | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 10:00 UTC |
| Beijing Guoan wins · Beijing Guoan | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 10:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 10:00 UTC |
| Pohang Steelers wins · Pohang Steelers | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 10:00 UTC |
| Kyoto Sanga wins · Kyoto Sanga | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 10:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 12:15 UTC |
| Shanghai Port wins · Shanghai Port | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 12:15 UTC |
| Buriram wins · Buriram | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 12:15 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 12:15 UTC |
| Ratchaburi wins · Ratchaburi | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 12:15 UTC |
| Johor Darul Ta'zim wins · Johor Darul Ta'zim | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 12:15 UTC |
| Kobe wins · Kobe | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 12:15 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 12:15 UTC |
| CONG AN wins · CONG AN | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 12:15 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 16:00 UTC |
| Shabab Al-Ahli wins · Shabab Al-Ahli | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 16:00 UTC |
| Al Qadsiah wins · Al Qadsiah | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 16:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 18:15 UTC |
| Al Sadd wins · Al Sadd | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 18:15 UTC |
| Al Nassr wins · Al Nassr | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 26, 18:15 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 25, 13:45 UTC |
| Neftchi wins · Neftchi | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 25, 13:45 UTC |
| Al Hilal wins · Al Hilal | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 25, 13:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 25, 16:00 UTC |
| Esteghlal wins · Esteghlal | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 25, 16:00 UTC |
| Al Ain wins · Al Ain | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 25, 16:00 UTC |
| Al Wasl wins · Al Wasl | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 25, 16:00 UTC |
| Tractor Tabriz wins · Tractor Tabriz | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 25, 16:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 25, 16:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 25, 16:00 UTC |
| Al-Shamal wins · Al-Shamal | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 25, 16:00 UTC |
| Al Ahli Saudi wins · Al Ahli Saudi | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Nov 25, 16:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 25, 18:15 UTC |
| Pakhtakor wins · Pakhtakor | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 25, 18:15 UTC |
| Al-Ittihad wins · Al-Ittihad | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 25, 18:15 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 25, 18:15 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 42 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.