What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 44¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.96.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 46% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 44%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Point Total on Kalshi

If over 5.5 goals are scored in the Algeria vs Togo professional AFCON Qualifiers soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: FIFA.

Market says (typical open contract)

44%

Median YES price across 144 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

88% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
44¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.96	45.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will over 0.5 goals be scored? · Over 0.5 goals scored	93¢	93%	0.5¢	—	14%	251	Nov 14, 16:00 UTC
Will over 3.5 goals be scored? · Over 3.5 goals scored	38¢	38%	1.6¢	—	75%	91	Nov 15, 16:00 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	65¢	65%	1.6¢	—	70%	81	Nov 14, 15:00 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	41¢	41%	1.7¢	—	82%	68	Nov 14, 19:00 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	65%	25	Nov 14, 16:00 UTC
Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored	73¢	73%	1.4¢	—	54%	25	Nov 14, 16:00 UTC
Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored	66¢	66%	1.6¢	—	68%	21	Nov 16, 16:00 UTC
Will over 0.5 goals be scored? · Over 0.5 goals scored	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	92%	21	Nov 16, 16:00 UTC
Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored	74¢	74%	1.3¢	—	52%	21	Nov 15, 16:00 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	59¢	59%	1.7¢	—	82%	13	Nov 15, 20:00 UTC
Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored	67¢	67%	1.5¢	—	66%	4	Nov 15, 13:00 UTC
Will over 5.5 goals be scored? · Over 5.5 goals scored	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	0	Nov 16, 19:00 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	0	Nov 16, 19:00 UTC
Will over 3.5 goals be scored? · Over 3.5 goals scored	33¢	33%	1.5¢	—	66%	0	Nov 16, 19:00 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	89%	0	Nov 16, 19:00 UTC
Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored	79¢	79%	1.2¢	—	42%	0	Nov 16, 19:00 UTC
Will over 0.5 goals be scored? · Over 0.5 goals scored	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 16, 19:00 UTC
Will over 5.5 goals be scored? · Over 5.5 goals scored	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Nov 16, 19:00 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	0	Nov 16, 19:00 UTC
Will over 3.5 goals be scored? · Over 3.5 goals scored	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	59%	0	Nov 16, 19:00 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	95%	0	Nov 16, 19:00 UTC
Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	47%	0	Nov 16, 19:00 UTC
Will over 0.5 goals be scored? · Over 0.5 goals scored	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 16, 19:00 UTC
Will over 5.5 goals be scored? · Over 5.5 goals scored	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 16, 16:00 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 16, 16:00 UTC
Will over 3.5 goals be scored? · Over 3.5 goals scored	47¢	47%	1.7¢	—	94%	0	Nov 16, 16:00 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	41¢	41%	1.7¢	—	82%	0	Nov 16, 16:00 UTC
Will over 5.5 goals be scored? · Over 5.5 goals scored	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	0	Nov 15, 20:00 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	52%	0	Nov 15, 20:00 UTC
Will over 3.5 goals be scored? · Over 3.5 goals scored	45¢	45%	1.7¢	—	90%	0	Nov 15, 20:00 UTC
Will over 2.5 goals be scored? · Over 2.5 goals scored	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	65%	0	Nov 15, 20:00 UTC
Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored	87¢	87%	0.8¢	—	26%	0	Nov 15, 20:00 UTC
Will over 0.5 goals be scored? · Over 0.5 goals scored	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	63%	0	Nov 15, 20:00 UTC
Will over 5.5 goals be scored? · Over 5.5 goals scored	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	0	Nov 15, 20:00 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	0	Nov 15, 20:00 UTC
Will over 3.5 goals be scored? · Over 3.5 goals scored	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	72%	0	Nov 15, 20:00 UTC
Will over 1.5 goals be scored? · Over 1.5 goals scored	81¢	81%	1.1¢	—	38%	0	Nov 15, 20:00 UTC
Will over 0.5 goals be scored? · Over 0.5 goals scored	64¢	64%	1.6¢	—	73%	0	Nov 15, 20:00 UTC
Will over 5.5 goals be scored? · Over 5.5 goals scored	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	0	Nov 15, 19:00 UTC
Will over 4.5 goals be scored? · Over 4.5 goals scored	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	0	Nov 15, 19:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 144 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.