What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 54¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.61.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 56% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 54%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

AI app downloads array on Kalshi

If the Carbon Arc AI app downloads array index (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 800, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Carbon Arc.

Market says (typical open contract)

54%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

92% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
54¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.61	55.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will AI app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 650? · Above 650	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	6,895	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will AI app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 700? · Above 700	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	6,711	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will AI app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 450? · Above 450	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	48%	5,388	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will AI app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 800? · Above 800	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	1,080	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will AI app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 400? · Above 400	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	47%	27	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will AI app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 750? · Above 750	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	0	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will AI app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 600? · Above 600	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	97%	0	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will AI app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 550? · Above 550	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	92%	0	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will AI app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 500? · Above 500	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	92%	0	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will AI app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 350? · Above 350	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	48%	0	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC
Will AI app downloads array index for November 2026 be above 300? · Above 300	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	48%	0	Dec 08, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.