Markets › Kalshi › Economics
MacAskill–Moll AI growth bet on Kalshi
If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is at least 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
85%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
30% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 85¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $0.53 | 85.9% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be at least 15%? · At least 15% | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 115 | Jan 26, 13:29 UTC |
| Will maximum peak-relative growth in U.S. real GDP per capita for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 be below 15%? · Below 15% | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 6 | Jan 26, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.