What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 54¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.61.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 56% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 54%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology

AI Millennium Prize Problem solution on Kalshi

If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Guardian, National Academy of Sciences of the United States, Financial Times, Associated Press, the Clay Mathematics Institute, Science, Nature, arXiv preprint repository operated by Cornell University, Royal Society, the American Mathematical Society, the International Mathematical Union, The Washington Post, the New York Times, Max Planck Society, American Association for the Advancement of Science, British Broadcasting Corporation, Quanta Magazine, The Wall Street Journal, French Academy of Sciences, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Scientific American, The Economist.

Market says (typical open contract)

54%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

92% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
54¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.61	55.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027? · Before 2027	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	21%	17,775	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	3,079	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	92%	1,149	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028? · Before 2028	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	65%	962	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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