What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 16¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.94.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 17% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 16%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Alito announces retirement on Kalshi

If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: person, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, The Washington Post, Fox News, Reuters, CNN, official government records and registries, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, the Associated Press, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

16%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

32% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
16¢ (now)	0.9¢	$2.94	16.9%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	190,107	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	30,710	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	21%	4,769	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	2,611	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Oct 1, 2027? · Before Oct 1, 2027	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	2,297	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.