What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 59¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.43.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 61% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 59%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Alaska Airlines KPI on Kalshi

If Alaska Air Group Inc. reports Above 81% passenger load factor in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

59%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

82% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
59¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.44	60.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 76% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 76%	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	360	Aug 17, 04:00 UTC
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 76.5% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 76.5%	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	200	Aug 17, 04:00 UTC
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 81%	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	178	Aug 17, 04:00 UTC
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 80% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 80%	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	101	Aug 17, 04:00 UTC
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 80.5% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 80.5%	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	81	Aug 17, 04:00 UTC
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 79.5% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 79.5%	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	58%	0	Aug 17, 04:00 UTC
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 79% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 79%	43¢	43%	1.7¢	—	86%	0	Aug 17, 04:00 UTC
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 78.5% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 78.5%	59¢	59%	1.7¢	—	82%	0	Aug 17, 04:00 UTC
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 78% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 78%	73¢	73%	1.4¢	—	54%	0	Aug 17, 04:00 UTC
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 77.5% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 77.5%	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	32%	0	Aug 17, 04:00 UTC
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 77% passenger load factor in Q1 2027? · Above 77%	91¢	91%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Aug 17, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.