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Amazon ad surcharge lawsuit on Kalshi

If Amazon.com, Inc. achieves the superior outcome in the trial-level resolution of Federal Trade Commission et al. v. Amazon.com, Inc. (No. 2:26-cv-03097), originally filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington Clerk’s Office, PACER.

Market says (typical open contract)
15%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
30% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
15¢ (now)0.9¢$2.9815.9%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will Amazon win the FTC ad surcharge lawsuit before 2029? · Before 202915¢15%0.9¢—30%370Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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