What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 11¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.11.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 12% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 11%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

America party 2028 on Kalshi

If a party founded by Elon Musk contests the 2028 U.S. presidential election by having at least one candidate officially on the ballot before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the official election commission or electoral authority governing <election>, The Guardian, The Wall Street Journal, the government of the jurisdiction holding <election>, Al Jazeera, Financial Times, Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNN, the Associated Press, official statements from <party>, The New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

11%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

22% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
11¢ (now)	0.7¢	$3.12	11.7%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will a party founded by Elon Musk be on a 2028 presidential ballot before Sep 1, 2028? · a party founded by Elon Musk	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	3,186	Sep 08, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.