What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 40¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.10.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 42% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 40%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will the government rescind the Anthropic ban? on Kalshi

If the Department of Defense or the White House announces an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation or phaseout directive applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit federal government or Department of Defense use of Anthropic's AI models or services before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: social media of the White House, ABC, the Federal Register, The Information, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, CBS, social media of the White House and the President of the United States, NBC, the White House, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, The New York Times, government agency, Semafor, Politico, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, the President of the United States.

Market says (typical open contract)

40%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

80% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
40¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.10	41.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the Department of Defense or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation or phaseout directive applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit federal government or Department of Defense use of Anthropic's AI models or services before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	64%	4,451	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Department of War or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit the Department of War or its contractors to use Anthropic's AI models or services before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	4,070	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Department of War or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit the Department of War or its contractors to use Anthropic's AI models or services before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	26¢	26%	1.4¢	—	53%	2,346	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will the Department of War or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit the Department of War or its contractors to use Anthropic's AI models or services before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	43¢	43%	1.7¢	—	85%	123	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will the Department of Defense or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation or phaseout directive applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit federal government or Department of Defense use of Anthropic's AI models or services before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	80%	70	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will the Department of War or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit the Department of War or its contractors to use Anthropic's AI models or services before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	89%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.