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When will AP call the Alaska U.S. Senate election? on Kalshi
If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Associated Press.
Market says (typical open contract)
86%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
28% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 86¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $0.49 | 86.8% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AP call the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 14, 2026? · Before Nov 14 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 4,682 | Nov 14, 05:00 UTC |
| Will AP call the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Jan 4, 2027? · Before Jan 4 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3,718 | Jan 04, 05:00 UTC |
| Will AP call the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 19, 2026? · Before Nov 19 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 2,636 | Nov 19, 05:00 UTC |
| Will AP call the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 18, 2026? · Before Nov 18 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 2,060 | Nov 18, 05:00 UTC |
| Will AP call the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 11, 2026? · Before Nov 11 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 384 | Nov 11, 05:00 UTC |
| Will AP call the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election before 12:00 AM ET on Nov 26, 2026? · Before Nov 26 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 101 | Nov 26, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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