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Arctic sea ice max extent on Kalshi
If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 18, 2026 and April 01, 2027 where the extent of Arctic sea ice is above 15.2 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: National Snow & Ice Data Center.
Market says (typical open contract)
83%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
34% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 83¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $0.60 | 84.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the extent of the Arctic sea ice be above 14.1 million square km at any point between December 18, 2026 and April 01, 2027? · Above 14.1 million sq km | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 54 | Apr 02, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the extent of the Arctic sea ice be above 14.2 million square km at any point between December 18, 2026 and April 01, 2027? · Above 14.2 million sq km | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 40 | Apr 02, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the extent of the Arctic sea ice be above 15.2 million square km at any point between December 18, 2026 and April 01, 2027? · Above 15.2 million sq km | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Apr 02, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the extent of the Arctic sea ice be above 15.0 million square km at any point between December 18, 2026 and April 01, 2027? · Above 15.0 million sq km | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Apr 02, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the extent of the Arctic sea ice be above 14.8 million square km at any point between December 18, 2026 and April 01, 2027? · Above 14.8 million sq km | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Apr 02, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the extent of the Arctic sea ice be above 14.6 million square km at any point between December 18, 2026 and April 01, 2027? · Above 14.6 million sq km | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Apr 02, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the extent of the Arctic sea ice be above 14.4 million square km at any point between December 18, 2026 and April 01, 2027? · Above 14.4 million sq km | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Apr 02, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the extent of the Arctic sea ice be above 14.3 million square km at any point between December 18, 2026 and April 01, 2027? · Above 14.3 million sq km | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Apr 02, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the extent of the Arctic sea ice be above 14.0 million square km at any point between December 18, 2026 and April 01, 2027? · Above 14.0 million sq km | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Apr 02, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the extent of the Arctic sea ice be above 13.9 million square km at any point between December 18, 2026 and April 01, 2027? · Above 13.9 million sq km | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Apr 02, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the extent of the Arctic sea ice be above 13.8 million square km at any point between December 18, 2026 and April 01, 2027? · Above 13.8 million sq km | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Apr 02, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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