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Argentina Primera Division Game on Kalshi
If Velez Sarsfield is the 2026 Argentina Torneo Clausura Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Boca Juniors win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Boca Juniors | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 11,423 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will River Plate win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · River Plate | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 2,284 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Defensa y Justicia win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Defensa y Justicia | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,850 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will San Lorenzo de Almagro win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · San Lorenzo de Almagro | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,788 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Union Santa Fe win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Union Santa Fe | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,464 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Estudiantes La Plata win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Estudiantes La Plata | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,376 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Velez Sarsfield win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Velez Sarsfield | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,374 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Platense win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Platense | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,350 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Rosario win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Rosario | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 1,306 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Riestra win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Riestra | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,300 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Racing Avellaneda win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Racing Avellaneda | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,300 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Tucuman win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Tucuman | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,299 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Tigre win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Tigre | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,299 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Junin win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Junin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,299 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Rio Cuarto win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Rio Cuarto | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,233 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Central Cordoba win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Central Cordoba | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,233 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Aldosivi win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Aldosivi | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,233 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Banfield win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Banfield | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,233 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Argentinos Juniors win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Argentinos Juniors | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 1,019 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Mendoza win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Mendoza | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,004 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Huracan win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Huracan | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 999 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Instituto Cordoba win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Instituto Cordoba | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 941 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Independiente Avellaneda win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Independiente Avellaneda | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 886 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Gimnasia La Plata win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Gimnasia La Plata | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 886 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Barracas win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Barracas | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 876 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Talleres Cordoba win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Talleres Cordoba | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 875 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Belgrano de Cordoba win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Belgrano de Cordoba | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 825 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Newell's Old Boys win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Newell's Old Boys | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 767 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Rivadavia win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Rivadavia | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 764 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Lanus win the Argentina Torneo Clausura? · Lanus | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 756 | Dec 26, 23:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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