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Challenger ATP on Kalshi
If Oriol Roca Batalla wins the Magadan vs Roca Batalla professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Lima Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ATP.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 138 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delaney wins · Jake Delaney | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 828,108 | Nov 24, 00:00 UTC |
| Juncheng Shang wins · Juncheng Shang | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 460,502 | Nov 24, 00:00 UTC |
| Isaac Becroft wins · Isaac Becroft | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 126,833 | Nov 24, 02:20 UTC |
| Yuta Shimizu wins · Yuta Shimizu | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 98,686 | Nov 24, 03:00 UTC |
| Kasidit Samrej wins · Kasidit Samrej | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 70,187 | Nov 24, 03:00 UTC |
| Sebastian Gorzny wins · Sebastian Gorzny | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 61,090 | Nov 24, 02:20 UTC |
| Renta Tokuda wins · Renta Tokuda | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 53,214 | Nov 24, 02:10 UTC |
| Koki Matsuda wins · Koki Matsuda | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 40,600 | Nov 24, 02:10 UTC |
| Niels McDonald wins · Niels McDonald | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 40,410 | Nov 24, 02:10 UTC |
| Shintaro Imai wins · Shintaro Imai | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 36,757 | Nov 24, 02:10 UTC |
| Rei Sakamoto wins · Rei Sakamoto | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 36,014 | Nov 24, 02:10 UTC |
| Fajing Sun wins · Fajing Sun | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 23,000 | Nov 24, 02:10 UTC |
| Omar Jasika wins · Omar Jasika | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 20,816 | Nov 24, 00:00 UTC |
| Dhakshineswar Suresh wins · Dhakshineswar Suresh | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 11,205 | Nov 24, 00:00 UTC |
| Braden Shick wins · Braden Shick | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 8,796 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Enzo Aguiard wins · Enzo Aguiard | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 7,025 | Nov 24, 00:00 UTC |
| Fabio Manuel Zavalaga Uculmana wins · Fabio Manuel Zavalaga Uculmana | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 6,348 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Michael Mmoh wins · Michael Mmoh | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 4,349 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Andres Andrade wins · Andres Andrade | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 4,083 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Alex Barrena wins · Alex Barrena | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,732 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Aidan Mayo wins · Aidan Mayo | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 3,600 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Daniil Glinka wins · Daniil Glinka | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 2,617 | Nov 24, 13:40 UTC |
| Stefan Kozlov wins · Stefan Kozlov | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 2,519 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Rio Noguchi wins · Rio Noguchi | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 2,391 | Nov 24, 04:00 UTC |
| Sergey Fomin wins · Sergey Fomin | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 2,370 | Nov 24, 08:00 UTC |
| Akira Santillan wins · Akira Santillan | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 2,006 | Nov 24, 00:00 UTC |
| Daniel Altmaier wins · Daniel Altmaier | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 1,670 | Nov 24, 12:30 UTC |
| Alexis Galarneau wins · Alexis Galarneau | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 1,346 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Alastair Gray wins · Alastair Gray | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 1,323 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Oskari Paldanius wins · Oskari Paldanius | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 1,005 | Nov 24, 10:20 UTC |
| Dalibor Svrcina wins · Dalibor Svrcina | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 924 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Darwin Blanch wins · Darwin Blanch | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 917 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Elmer Moller wins · Elmer Moller | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 893 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Cezar Cretu (b. 2001) wins · Cezar Cretu (b. 2001) | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 841 | Nov 24, 11:30 UTC |
| Marco Cecchinato wins · Marco Cecchinato | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 692 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Tristan Schoolkate wins · Tristan Schoolkate | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 657 | Nov 24, 00:00 UTC |
| Dino Prizmic wins · Dino Prizmic | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 643 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Mattia Bellucci wins · Mattia Bellucci | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 637 | Nov 24, 11:10 UTC |
| Buvaysar Gadamauri wins · Buvaysar Gadamauri | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 558 | Nov 24, 11:10 UTC |
| Marcos Giron wins · Marcos Giron | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 531 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 138 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.