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ATP Doubles Tennis Match on Kalshi
If Jean-Julien Rojer / Theodore Winegar wins the Jean-Julien Rojer / Theodore Winegar vs William Rejchtman Vinciguerra / Olle Wallin professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Stockholm 1/8 Finals after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ATP.
Market says (typical open contract)
55%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
90% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 55¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.57 | 56.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Cash / Alexander Erler wins · Robert Cash / Alexander Erler | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 4,672 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Nikola Mektic / Edouard Roger-Vasselin wins · Nikola Mektic / Edouard Roger-Vasselin | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 4,469 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Jean-Julien Rojer / Theodore Winegar wins · Jean-Julien Rojer / Theodore Winegar | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 2 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| William Rejchtman Vinciguerra / Olle Wallin wins · William Rejchtman Vinciguerra / Olle Wallin | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Marc Polmans / Jan Zielinski wins · Marc Polmans / Jan Zielinski | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Robert Galloway / Andre Goransson wins · Robert Galloway / Andre Goransson | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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