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Will Player Qualify for ATP Finals? on Kalshi
If Stefanos Tsitsipas qualifies for the 2026 Nitto ATP Singles Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, ATP.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 19 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alex de Minaur qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Alex de Minaur | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 34,009 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Taylor Fritz qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Taylor Fritz | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 30,879 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Novak Djokovic qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Novak Djokovic | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 25,642 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Casper Ruud qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Casper Ruud | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 24,387 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Tommy Paul qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Tommy Paul | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 18,073 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Stefanos Tsitsipas qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15,901 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Cameron Norrie qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Cameron Norrie | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,959 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Andrey Rublev qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Andrey Rublev | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,880 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Alexander Bublik qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Alexander Bublik | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,430 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Sebastian Korda qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Sebastian Korda | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,161 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Joao Fonseca qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Joao Fonseca | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,652 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Francisco Cerundolo qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Francisco Cerundolo | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,721 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Jan-Lennard Struff qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Jan-Lennard Struff | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,000 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Karen Khachanov qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Karen Khachanov | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,797 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Jakub Mensik qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Jakub Mensik | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,767 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Lorenzo Musetti | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,317 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Jack Draper qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Jack Draper | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,176 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Hubert Hurkacz qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Hubert Hurkacz | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,409 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
| Will Felix Auger-Aliassime qualify for the Nitto ATP Singles Finals? · Felix Auger-Aliassime | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,202 | Nov 15, 05:01 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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