Markets › Kalshi › Sports
ATP Tennis Match on Kalshi
If Toby Samuel wins the Musetti vs Samuel professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Stockholm Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ATP.
Market says (typical open contract)
55%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
91% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 55¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.57 | 56.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holger Rune wins · Holger Rune | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 26,156 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Arthur Rinderknech wins · Arthur Rinderknech | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 19,081 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante wins · Thiago Agustin Tirante | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 17,241 | Nov 24, 13:30 UTC |
| Miomir Kecmanovic wins · Miomir Kecmanovic | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 11,763 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Zizou Bergs wins · Zizou Bergs | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 11,424 | Nov 23, 11:00 UTC |
| Quentin Halys wins · Quentin Halys | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 5,995 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Aleksandr Shevchenko wins · Aleksandr Shevchenko | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 5,777 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry wins · Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 3,645 | Nov 24, 13:30 UTC |
| Adrian Mannarino wins · Adrian Mannarino | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 3,531 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo wins · Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 1,980 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Alex Michelsen wins · Alex Michelsen | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 1,729 | Nov 24, 12:00 UTC |
| Lorenzo Musetti wins · Lorenzo Musetti | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 1,533 | Nov 24, 18:10 UTC |
| Lorenzo Sonego wins · Lorenzo Sonego | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 832 | Nov 24, 10:00 UTC |
| Toby Samuel wins · Toby Samuel | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 172 | Nov 24, 18:10 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.