What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 48¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.82.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 50% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 48%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

ATP Set Winner on Kalshi

If Toby Samuel wins set 2 in the Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Stockholm Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ATP.

Market says (typical open contract)

48%

Median YES price across 28 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

96% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
48¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.82	49.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Holger Rune win set 1 in the Holger Rune vs Zizou Bergs match · Holger Rune	56¢	56%	1.7¢	—	87%	1,678	Nov 23, 11:00 UTC
Will Zizou Bergs win set 2 in the Holger Rune vs Zizou Bergs match · Zizou Bergs	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	95%	500	Nov 23, 11:00 UTC
Will Alex Michelsen win set 2 in the Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo match · Alex Michelsen	72¢	72%	1.4¢	—	56%	284	Nov 24, 12:00 UTC
Will Quentin Halys win set 1 in the Lorenzo Sonego vs Quentin Halys match · Quentin Halys	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	97%	190	Nov 24, 10:00 UTC
Will Zizou Bergs win set 1 in the Holger Rune vs Zizou Bergs match · Zizou Bergs	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	84%	148	Nov 23, 11:00 UTC
Will Arthur Rinderknech win set 1 in the Arthur Rinderknech vs Miomir Kecmanovic match · Arthur Rinderknech	61¢	61%	1.7¢	—	78%	91	Nov 23, 11:00 UTC
Will Alexander Shevchenko win set 1 in the Adrian Mannarino vs Alexander Shevchenko match · Alexander Shevchenko	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	95%	61	Nov 24, 12:00 UTC
Will Juan Manuel Cerundolo win set 2 in the Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo match · Juan Manuel Cerundolo	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	56%	14	Nov 24, 12:00 UTC
Will Juan Manuel Cerundolo win set 1 in the Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo match · Juan Manuel Cerundolo	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	61%	14	Nov 24, 12:00 UTC
Will Adrian Mannarino win set 1 in the Adrian Mannarino vs Alexander Shevchenko match · Adrian Mannarino	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	95%	7	Nov 24, 12:00 UTC
Will Toby Samuel win set 2 in the Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel match · Toby Samuel	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 24, 18:10 UTC
Will Lorenzo Musetti win set 2 in the Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel match · Lorenzo Musetti	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 24, 18:10 UTC
Will Toby Samuel win set 1 in the Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel match · Toby Samuel	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 24, 18:10 UTC
Will Lorenzo Musetti win set 1 in the Lorenzo Musetti vs Toby Samuel match · Lorenzo Musetti	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 24, 18:10 UTC
Will Thiago Agustin Tirante win set 2 in the Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Thiago Agustin Tirante match · Thiago Agustin Tirante	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 24, 13:30 UTC
Will Tomas Martin Etcheverry win set 2 in the Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Thiago Agustin Tirante match · Tomas Martin Etcheverry	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	0	Nov 24, 13:30 UTC
Will Thiago Agustin Tirante win set 1 in the Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Thiago Agustin Tirante match · Thiago Agustin Tirante	45¢	45%	1.7¢	—	91%	0	Nov 24, 13:30 UTC
Will Tomas Martin Etcheverry win set 1 in the Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Thiago Agustin Tirante match · Tomas Martin Etcheverry	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	92%	0	Nov 24, 13:30 UTC
Will Alex Michelsen win set 1 in the Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo match · Alex Michelsen	70¢	70%	1.5¢	—	61%	0	Nov 24, 12:00 UTC
Will Alexander Shevchenko win set 2 in the Adrian Mannarino vs Alexander Shevchenko match · Alexander Shevchenko	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 24, 12:00 UTC
Will Adrian Mannarino win set 2 in the Adrian Mannarino vs Alexander Shevchenko match · Adrian Mannarino	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 24, 12:00 UTC
Will Lorenzo Sonego win set 2 in the Lorenzo Sonego vs Quentin Halys match · Lorenzo Sonego	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	0	Nov 24, 10:00 UTC
Will Quentin Halys win set 2 in the Lorenzo Sonego vs Quentin Halys match · Quentin Halys	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	0	Nov 24, 10:00 UTC
Will Lorenzo Sonego win set 1 in the Lorenzo Sonego vs Quentin Halys match · Lorenzo Sonego	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	0	Nov 24, 10:00 UTC
Will Holger Rune win set 2 in the Holger Rune vs Zizou Bergs match · Holger Rune	58¢	58%	1.7¢	—	84%	0	Nov 23, 11:00 UTC
Will Arthur Rinderknech win set 2 in the Arthur Rinderknech vs Miomir Kecmanovic match · Arthur Rinderknech	64¢	64%	1.6¢	—	72%	0	Nov 23, 11:00 UTC
Will Miomir Kecmanovic win set 2 in the Arthur Rinderknech vs Miomir Kecmanovic match · Miomir Kecmanovic	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	69%	0	Nov 23, 11:00 UTC
Will Miomir Kecmanovic win set 1 in the Arthur Rinderknech vs Miomir Kecmanovic match · Miomir Kecmanovic	38¢	38%	1.7¢	—	77%	0	Nov 23, 11:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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