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Will person break their auction record this season? on Kalshi
If the highest auction sale price of any Leonardo da Vinci artwork sold at auction on any public auction house reporting final sale prices is above $450312500 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Sotheby’s, Phillips, Christie’s.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Leonardo da Vinci break their auction record this season? · Above $450,312,500 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 31,462 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vincent van Gogh break their auction record this season? · Above $117,180,000 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 22,087 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Claude Monet break their auction record this season? · Above $110,747,000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 14,348 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jean-Michel Basquiat break his auction record this season? · Above $110.5M | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 7,549 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pablo Picasso break his auction record this season? · Above $179,365,000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,980 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andy Warhol break his auction record this season? · Above $195,040,000 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,490 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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