Markets › Kalshi › Financials
AUDUSD Weekly on Kalshi
If the value of the AUDUSD opening candlestick is Above 0.707 at 5pm ET on Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - AUDUSD.
Market says (typical open contract)
72%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
56% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 72¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $0.98 | 73.4% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.707 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.707 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 14 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.705 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.705 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.703 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.703 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.701 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.701 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.699 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.699 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.697 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.697 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.695 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.695 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.693 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.693 | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.691 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.691 | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.689 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.689 | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.687 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.687 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.685 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.685 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.683 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.683 | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.681 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.681 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.679 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.679 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.677 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.677 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.675 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.675 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.673 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.673 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.671 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.671 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will AUDUSD be Above 0.669 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.669 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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