What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 6¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.31.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 6% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 6%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Next Australian PM on Kalshi

If Richard Marles becomes Prime Minister of Australia as a result of government formation following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives and meets all constitutional requirements before Sep 23, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: parliament or legislature of <country>, official government gazette or equivalent official publication of <country>, office of the head of state of <country>, major national news outlets of <country>, Financial Times, the Associated Press, official government websites of <country>, Reuters, The Guardian, BBC, The Washington Post, Bloomberg News, The New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

11% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
6¢ (now)	0.4¢	$3.29	6.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Pauline Hanson become Prime Minister of Australia following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives? · Pauline Hanson	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	575	Sep 23, 14:00 UTC
Will Jane Hume become Prime Minister of Australia following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives? · Jane Hume	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	76	Sep 23, 14:00 UTC
Will Jim Chalmers become Prime Minister of Australia following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives? · Jim Chalmers	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	73	Sep 23, 14:00 UTC
Will Richard Marles become Prime Minister of Australia following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives? · Richard Marles	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	57	Sep 23, 14:00 UTC
Will Angus Taylor become Prime Minister of Australia following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives? · Angus Taylor	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	38	Sep 23, 14:00 UTC
Will Anthony Albanese become Prime Minister of Australia following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives? · Anthony Albanese	37¢	37%	1.6¢	—	74%	15	Sep 23, 14:00 UTC
Will Andrew Hastie become Prime Minister of Australia following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives? · Andrew Hastie	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	6	Sep 23, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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