Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Australia Senate on Kalshi
If the winner of the next Australian Senate election is One Nation, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the official electoral commission, constitutional court, or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction.
Market says (typical open contract)
13%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
26% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.04 | 13.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will win the next Australian Senate election? · Liberal-National Coalition | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 1,361 | May 20, 14:00 UTC |
| Will One Nation win the next Australian Senate election? · One Nation | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 384 | May 20, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next Australian Senate election? · Australian Labor Party | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 169 | May 20, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next Australian Senate election? · Australian Greens | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 60 | May 20, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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