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Measles during Trump admin on Kalshi
If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 4500, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: CDC.
Market says (typical open contract)
83%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
34% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 83¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $0.60 | 84.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? · At least 5000 | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 44,958 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? · At least 2000 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 33,399 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? · At least 3000 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 3,140 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? · At least 2500 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 2,395 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? · At least 4500 | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 1,656 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? · At least 4000 | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 1,569 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration? · At least 3500 | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 961 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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