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Traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Kalshi
If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 230 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: IMF PortWatch.
Market says (typical open contract)
44%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
88% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 44¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.96 | 45.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be more than 160 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 160 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 37,126 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 210 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 210 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 36,746 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 170 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 170 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 34,878 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 180 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 180 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 29,818 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 220 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 220 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 28,082 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 190 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 190 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 24,951 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 200 | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 23,845 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 195 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 195 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 23,513 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 185 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 185 | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 23,009 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 150 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 19,292 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 205 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 205 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 9,032 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 200 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 2,950 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 230 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 230 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,287 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 190 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 190 | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 2,251 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 195 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 195 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 696 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 185 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 185 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 666 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 210 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 210 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 232 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 205 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 205 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 46 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 180 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 180 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 14 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 220 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 220 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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