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Barr Mention on Kalshi
If Michael S. Barr says Trump as part of Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
18%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
37% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.87 | 19.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · AI / Artificial Intelligence | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 922 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Afford / Affordability / Affordable | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 240 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Labor / Employment / Unemployment | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 42 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Productivity | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 36 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Event does not qualify | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 20 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Trump | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 7 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 4 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Mortgage | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 3 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Tariff | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 2 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Liquidity | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 2 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Stock Market | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Stablecoin | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Recession | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Inflation / Inflationary | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Financial Crisis | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Bank Run | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Michael S. Barr say during Yale School of Management talk and Q&A originally scheduled for November 12, 2026? · Balance Sheet | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 26, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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