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Summer Olympics USA Men's Basketball Team on Kalshi
If Walker Kessler is selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, NBC Sports, The Wall Street Journal, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, Fox Sports, ABC News, CBS Sports, The Washington Post, AP, Reuters, The Athletic.
Market says (typical open contract)
38%
Median YES price across 40 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
76% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 38¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.17 | 39.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kon Knueppel be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Kon Knueppel | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 2,779 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jalen Brunson be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Jalen Brunson | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 2,547 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Paolo Banchero be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Paolo Banchero | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 1,453 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Chet Holmgren be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Chet Holmgren | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 924 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will LeBron James be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · LeBron James | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 890 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Scottie Barnes be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Scottie Barnes | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 834 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cameron Boozer be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Cameron Boozer | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 747 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Brandon Miller be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Brandon Miller | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 742 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bam Adebayo be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Bam Adebayo | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 664 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Darryn Peterson be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Darryn Peterson | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 523 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jalen Williams be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Jalen Williams | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 512 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Devin Booker be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Devin Booker | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 497 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Amen Thompson be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Amen Thompson | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 494 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tyrese Maxey be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Tyrese Maxey | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 440 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Walker Kessler be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Walker Kessler | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 344 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Anthony Davis be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Anthony Davis | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 320 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jayson Tatum be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Jayson Tatum | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 280 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Stephen Curry be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Stephen Curry | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 275 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jaylen Brown be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Jaylen Brown | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 267 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tyrese Haliburton be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Tyrese Haliburton | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 255 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cooper Flagg be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Cooper Flagg | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 221 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cade Cunningham be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Cade Cunningham | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 192 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Austin Reaves be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Austin Reaves | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 166 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will AJ Dybantsa be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · AJ Dybantsa | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 166 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jaren Jackson Jr. be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Jaren Jackson Jr. | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 112 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Trey Murphy III be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Trey Murphy III | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 101 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ja Morant be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Ja Morant | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 96 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ausar Thompson be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Ausar Thompson | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 87 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Mikal Bridges be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Mikal Bridges | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 82 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Durant be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Kevin Durant | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 69 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Donovan Mitchell be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Donovan Mitchell | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 68 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tyran Stokes be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Tyran Stokes | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 61 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Donovan Clingan be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Donovan Clingan | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 42 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Anthony Edwards be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Anthony Edwards | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 25 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Evan Mobley be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Evan Mobley | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 24 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Joel Embiid be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Joel Embiid | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 20 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jarrett Allen be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Jarrett Allen | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 16 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Trae Young be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Trae Young | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 6 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jalen Duren be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Jalen Duren | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 4 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Derrick White be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics? · Derrick White | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 2 | Jul 31, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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