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Italy Serie A2 Game on Kalshi
If US Victoria Libertas wins the US Victoria Libertas vs Dinamo Sassari men's professional Italy Serie A2 basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026 at 2:30 PM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Flashscore, EuroBasket, Sofascore.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
96% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 52¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.68 | 53.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Victoria Libertas wins · US Victoria Libertas | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:30 UTC |
| Dinamo Sassari wins · Dinamo Sassari | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:30 UTC |
| Urania Milano wins · Urania Milano | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:30 UTC |
| S.S. Avellino Basket wins · S.S. Avellino Basket | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:30 UTC |
| Basket Torino wins · Basket Torino | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:30 UTC |
| Fortitudo Bologna wins · Fortitudo Bologna | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:30 UTC |
| Real Sebastiani Rieti wins · Real Sebastiani Rieti | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 13, 20:00 UTC |
| Montecatiniterme Basketball wins · Montecatiniterme Basketball | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 13, 20:00 UTC |
| AS Pistoia Basket 2000 wins · AS Pistoia Basket 2000 | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:30 UTC |
| Juvecaserta 2021 wins · Juvecaserta 2021 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:30 UTC |
| Juvi Cremona 1952 wins · Juvi Cremona 1952 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:30 UTC |
| Benedetto Xiv Cento wins · Benedetto Xiv Cento | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:30 UTC |
| Libertas Livorno wins · Libertas Livorno | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:45 UTC |
| New Basket Brindisi wins · New Basket Brindisi | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:45 UTC |
| Pallacanestro Ruvo di Puglia wins · Pallacanestro Ruvo di Puglia | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 13, 20:00 UTC |
| Elachem Vigevano 1955 wins · Elachem Vigevano 1955 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 13, 20:00 UTC |
| Ueb Cividale wins · Ueb Cividale | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:30 UTC |
| Basket Mestre 1958 wins · Basket Mestre 1958 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:30 UTC |
| Rinascita Basket Rimini wins · Rinascita Basket Rimini | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:30 UTC |
| Pallacanestro 2.015 Forli wins · Pallacanestro 2.015 Forli | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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