Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Next government of British Columbia on Kalshi
If a coalition that includes OneBC make up the next elected ruling government of British Columbia before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Government of British Columbia.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will BC NDP be a part of the next government in British Columbia? · BC NDP | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,615 | Mar 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will BC Conservatives be a part of the next government in British Columbia? · BC Conservatives | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,920 | Mar 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will CentreBC be a part of the next government in British Columbia? · CentreBC | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,442 | Mar 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will BC Greens be a part of the next government in British Columbia? · BC Greens | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,340 | Mar 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will OneBC be a part of the next government in British Columbia? · OneBC | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 785 | Mar 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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