What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 82¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.65.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 83% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 82%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Andy Beshear announces presidential run by...? on Kalshi

If Andy Beshear has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, Reuters, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

82%

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

37% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
81¢ (now)	1.1¢	$0.66	82.1%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Andy Beshear announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	2,508	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Andy Beshear announce a run for President of the United States before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	71¢	71%	1.4¢	—	58%	1,001	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Andy Beshear announce a run for President of the United States before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027	74¢	74%	1.3¢	—	51%	631	Mar 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Andy Beshear announce a run for President of the United States before Jun 1, 2027? · Before Jun 1, 2027	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	32%	200	Jun 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Andy Beshear announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	43%	47	Apr 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Andy Beshear announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027? · Before Oct 1, 2027	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	15%	0	Oct 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Andy Beshear announce a run for President of the United States before May 1, 2027? · Before May 1, 2027	82¢	82%	1.1¢	—	37%	0	May 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Andy Beshear announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	88¢	88%	0.8¢	—	25%	0	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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