What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 54¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.59.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 56% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 54%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Scott Bessent announces he's leaving as Secretary of the Treasury? on Kalshi

If Scott Bessent leaves (or announces he will leave) as Secretary of the Treasury before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Deutsche Welle, ABC, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, the Department of the Treasury, CNBC, Financial Times, CBS, NBC, Scott Bessent, BBC, the White House, The Washington Post, Fox News, CNN, ABC News Australia, Politico, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

54%

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

91% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
54¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.61	55.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Scott Bessent announce their departure as Secretary of the Treasury before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	301	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Scott Bessent announce their departure as Secretary of the Treasury before Jul 1, 2028? · Before Jul 1, 2028	81¢	81%	1.1¢	—	38%	200	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Scott Bessent announce their departure as Secretary of the Treasury before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	52%	117	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Scott Bessent announce their departure as Secretary of the Treasury before Oct 1, 2027? · Before Oct 1, 2027	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	91%	0	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Scott Bessent announce their departure as Secretary of the Treasury before Jan 1, 2029? · Before Jan 1, 2029	93¢	93%	0.5¢	—	14%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Scott Bessent announce their departure as Secretary of the Treasury before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	64¢	64%	1.6¢	—	71%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Scott Bessent announce their departure as Secretary of the Treasury before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	73%	0	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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