What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 52¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.66.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 54% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 52%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Big Bear Mountain Resort opening on Kalshi

If the first calendar day in the 26/27 winter season on which Big Bear Mountain Resort conducts Seasonal Opening Operations is before Nov 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: USA Today, Associated Press, Alterra Mountain Company, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

52%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

95% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
53¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.65	54.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Big Bear Mountain Resort open before Dec 6, 2026? · Before Dec 6, 2026	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	95%	6,612	Dec 12, 15:00 UTC
Will Big Bear Mountain Resort open before Nov 15, 2026? · Before Nov 15, 2026	14¢	14%	0.9¢	—	29%	6,406	Nov 21, 15:00 UTC
Will Big Bear Mountain Resort open before Nov 22, 2026? · Before Nov 22, 2026	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	69%	3,676	Nov 28, 15:00 UTC
Will Big Bear Mountain Resort open before Nov 29, 2026? · Before Nov 29, 2026	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	89%	561	Dec 05, 15:00 UTC
Will Big Bear Mountain Resort open before Dec 13, 2026? · Before Dec 13, 2026	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	171	Dec 19, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.