What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 84¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.54.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 85% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 84%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Brazil inflation on Kalshi

If the annual inflation rate in Brazil is above 4.90% in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: IGBE.

Market says (typical open contract)

84%

Median YES price across 22 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

31% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
84¢ (now)	0.9¢	$0.56	84.9%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will inflation in Brazil be below 4.00% in Dec 2026? · In Dec 2026	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	151,149	Mar 31, 15:00 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.70% in Oct 2026? · Above 4.70%	64¢	64%	1.6¢	—	72%	5,944	Nov 12, 12:55 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.00% in Dec 2026? · Above 4.00%	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	31%	3,777	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.90% in Oct 2026? · Above 4.90%	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	3,079	Nov 12, 12:55 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 3.90% in Oct 2026? · Above 3.90%	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,064	Nov 12, 12:55 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.80% in Oct 2026? · Above 4.80%	38¢	38%	1.7¢	—	77%	1,891	Nov 12, 12:55 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 3.75% in Dec 2026? · Above 3.75%	88¢	88%	0.8¢	—	25%	1,025	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.50% in Oct 2026? · Above 4.50%	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	1,008	Nov 12, 12:55 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.40% in Oct 2026? · Above 4.40%	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	900	Nov 12, 12:55 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.60% in Oct 2026? · Above 4.60%	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	31%	767	Nov 12, 12:55 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.00% in Oct 2026? · Above 4.00%	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	601	Nov 12, 12:55 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.75% in Dec 2026? · Above 4.75%	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	65%	511	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.30% in Oct 2026? · Above 4.30%	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	350	Nov 12, 12:55 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 3.50% in Dec 2026? · Above 3.50%	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	80%	295	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.50% in Dec 2026? · Above 4.50%	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	60%	210	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 5.50% in Dec 2026? · Above 5.50%	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	209	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.20% in Oct 2026? · Above 4.20%	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	200	Nov 12, 12:55 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.10% in Oct 2026? · Above 4.10%	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	200	Nov 12, 12:55 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.25% in Dec 2026? · Above 4.25%	86¢	86%	0.8¢	—	27%	195	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 5.25% in Dec 2026? · Above 5.25%	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	109	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 3.25% in Dec 2026? · Above 3.25%	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	80%	68	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will inflation in Brazil be above 5.00% in Dec 2026? · Above 5.00%	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	7	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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