Markets › Kalshi › Commodities
Brent Oil Daily on Kalshi
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST is above 82.00 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - Brent.
Market says (typical open contract)
40%
Median YES price across 40 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
79% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 40¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.10 | 41.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 94.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $94.50 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 823 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 84.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $84.50 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 600 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 98.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $98.50 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 459 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 95 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $95 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 405 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 94 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $94 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 324 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 91.00 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $91.00 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 289 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 92 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $92 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 284 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 91.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $91.50 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 228 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 93 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $93 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 226 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 90.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $90.50 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 184 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 97.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $97.50 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 105 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 88.00 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $88.00 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 68 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 87.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $87.50 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 60 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 87.00 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $87.00 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 56 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 96 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $96 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 54 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 92.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $92.50 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 53 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 95.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $95.50 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 50 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 99 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $99 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 27 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 99.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $99.50 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 26 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 88.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $88.50 | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 18 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 96.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $96.50 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 15 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 100 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $100 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 14 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 90.00 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $90.00 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 8 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 89.00 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $89.00 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 5 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 89.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $89.50 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 5 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 101.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $101.50 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 5 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 101 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $101 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 5 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 100.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $100.50 | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 82.00 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $82.00 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 82.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $82.50 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 83.00 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $83.00 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 83.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $83.50 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 84.00 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $84.00 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85.00 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $85.00 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $85.50 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 86.00 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $86.00 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 86.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $86.50 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 98 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $98 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 97 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $97 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 93.50 USD/Bbl on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $93.50 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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