Markets › Kalshi › Politics
Who will be Brazilian finance minister after the election? on Kalshi
If Rafael Fonteles formally takes office as Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the New York Times, Deutsche Welle, MS Now, ABC, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Al Jazeera, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, CNN, Fox News, Reuters, ABC News Australia, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, BBC.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rafael Fonteles be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Rafael Fonteles | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 572 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Geraldo Alckmin be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Geraldo Alckmin | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 305 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dario Durigan be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Dario Durigan | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 52 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Renan Filho be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Renan Filho | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Rogério Ceron be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Rogério Ceron | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gabriel Galípolo be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Gabriel Galípolo | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Fernando Haddad be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Fernando Haddad | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Camilo Santana be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Camilo Santana | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bruno Moretti be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Bruno Moretti | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Aloizio Mercadante be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Brazilian general election? · Aloizio Mercadante | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.