Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Brazil President, Israel PM & U.S. Senate combo on Kalshi
If ALL of the following occur: Brazil President: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Israel Prime Minister: Naftali Bennett, U.S. Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Library of Congress, The Knesset, Tribunal Superior Eleitoral.
Market says (typical open contract)
9%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
18% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.19 | 9.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil President be Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva AND Israel Prime Minister be Gadi Eizenkot AND U.S. Senate Control be Democratic? · Lula, Eizenkot, Democrats | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 12,660 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Brazil President be Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva AND Israel Prime Minister be Benjamin Netanyahu AND U.S. Senate Control be Democratic? · Lula, Netanyahu, Democrats | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 7,305 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Brazil President be Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva AND Israel Prime Minister be Naftali Bennett AND U.S. Senate Control be Democratic? · Lula, Bennett, Democrats | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 616 | Oct 27, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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