Markets › Kalshi › Crypto
BTC one touch minimum on Kalshi
If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026 is ever below $72500.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: CF Benchmarks.
Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
50%
Five-minute and fifteen-minute moves have no measurable predictability; our own 30-day test of the most popular entry rule lost on 76% of trades.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
A coin flip with a cover charge. Skill contributes nothing at this horizon; the fee always does.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.94 | 16.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will BTC trimmed mean be below $65000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026? · Below $65,000.00 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 100% | 121,536 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BTC trimmed mean be below $67500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026? · Below $67,500.00 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 100% | 87,580 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BTC trimmed mean be below $70000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026? · Below $70,000.00 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 100% | 80,379 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BTC trimmed mean be below $62500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026? · Below $62,500.00 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 100% | 58,174 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BTC trimmed mean be below $72500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026? · Below $72,500.00 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 100% | 53,814 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BTC trimmed mean be below $60000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026? · Below $60,000.00 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 100% | 19,750 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BTC trimmed mean be below $57500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Nov 30, 2026? · Below $57,500.00 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 100% | 19,218 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.