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Bundesliga Leader on Kalshi
If Younes Ebnoutalib leads Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports, Sky Sports, NBC Sports, ESPN, CBS Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Harry Kane lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Harry Kane | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 251 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Younes Ebnoutalib lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Younes Ebnoutalib | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Tim Kleindienst lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Tim Kleindienst | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Serhou Guirassy lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Serhou Guirassy | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Said El Mala lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Said El Mala | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Romulo Jose Cardoso da Cruz lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Romulo Jose Cardoso da Cruz | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Patrik Schick lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Patrik Schick | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Olise lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Michael Olise | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Moussa Diaby lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Moussa Diaby | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lennart Karl lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Lennart Karl | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Luis Diaz lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Luis Diaz | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Jonathan Burkardt lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Jonathan Burkardt | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Ismael Saibari lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Ismael Saibari | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Fabio Silva lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Fabio Silva | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Ermedin Demirovic lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Ermedin Demirovic | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Deniz Undav lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Deniz Undav | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Dzenan Pejcinovic lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Dzenan Pejcinovic | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Christian Kofane lead Bundesliga in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Christian Kofane | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | May 30, 02:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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