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Bundesliga Relegation on Kalshi
If Stuttgart is relegated from the Bundesliga in 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
7%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
14% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bayern Munich be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · Bayern Munich | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 26,556 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Paderborn be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · Paderborn | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 774 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will M´gladbach be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · M´gladbach | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 422 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Schalke be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · Schalke | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 421 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will FC Cologne be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · FC Cologne | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 131 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Elversberg be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · Elversberg | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 89 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Union Berlin be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · Union Berlin | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 75 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Dortmund be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · Dortmund | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 71 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Augsburg be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · Augsburg | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 27 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Bremen be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · Bremen | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 21 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Frankfurt be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · Frankfurt | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 12 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Stuttgart be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · Stuttgart | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 10 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Hamburg be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · Hamburg | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 10 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Hoffenheim be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · Hoffenheim | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 3 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Leipzig be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · Leipzig | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Freiburg be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · Freiburg | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Mainz be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · Mainz | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Leverkusen be relegated from Bundesliga in 2026-27 Season? · Leverkusen | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 15, 02:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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