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Bundesliga Top Finishers on Kalshi
If Stuttgart is a top 4 finisher in the 2026-27 Bundesliga season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Sky Sports, ESPN, CBS Sports, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
12% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stuttgart finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · Stuttgart | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 100,163 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Leipzig finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · Leipzig | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 239 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Leverkusen finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · Leverkusen | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 133 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Freiburg finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · Freiburg | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 23 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Dortmund finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · Dortmund | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 14 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Bayern Munich finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · Bayern Munich | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Frankfurt finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · Frankfurt | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 3 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Union Berlin finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · Union Berlin | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · Hoffenheim | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Bremen finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · Bremen | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Elversberg finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · Elversberg | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Schalke finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · Schalke | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Paderborn finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · Paderborn | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Mainz finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · Mainz | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will FC Cologne finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · FC Cologne | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Hamburg finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · Hamburg | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Augsburg finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · Augsburg | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
| Will M´gladbach finish in the top 4 in the Bundesliga season? · M´gladbach | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 06, 02:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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